IA 5.2. Demonstration of real-time EWE simulation and smoke spread based on coupled fire-atmosphere approaches using of HR weather data
OVERVIEW
What kind of result is this? | Both a new tool (ForeFire) and an updated tool (Wildfire Analyst). | |
What’s the area addressed? | Advanced Technology Solutions | |
What’s the covered phase? | Prevention & Preparedness, Detection & Response, | |
What’s the addressed challenge? | Extreme Wildfire Events (EWE) are very complex phenomena whose potential of occurrence is currently very hard to predict. The same applies to the capability of simulating such kind of phenomena. Also, there is the need to have a daily estimation of fire risk in the LLs territories to better estimate the potential impact of the fire in such areas, taking into account the existing population, buildings, weather, vegetation and terrain conditions. | |
What value is proposed? | Two simulation services, complementary to each-other, are expected to be provided. One is based on the operational simulation capabilities of Wildfire AnalystTM from Tecnosylva, where the aim is to provide near real-time forest fire behaviour modelling and spread prediction through deterministic and stochastic modelling approaches, providing surface level forest fire behaviour results and pyroconvective indicators in a few minutes (usually 1-3 minutes). The second is a forest fire simulator based on the simulation capabilities of the Meso-NH/FOREFIRE coupled fire/atmosphere simulator from CNRS. The latter shall be applied in case the fire has been identified by the Wildfire Analyst pyroconvective indicators for having potential of pyroconvection. Hence, the FOREFIRE simulation capabilities shall be applied to those fires with additional complexity where more physics are required to be simulated and where an in-depth analysis and very high-resolution fire-weather (sub-kilometre scale) forecast is required to better understand the complex fire-atmosphere interactions. As a reference, the FOREFIRE forest fire simulation services are expected to be able to provide 12h of fire and weather forecast in about one hour of computation time. The Wildfire Analyst based simulation services are meant to be an operational service, providing results in a couple of minutes and allows to quickly estimate how the fire is expected to behave, how it is expected to spread in the terrain and to understand the potential impacts and consequences of the fire on population and buildings. Thus, the forest fire impact information shall include the assets (buildings) foreseen to be impacted, when and how these are expected to be impacted, as well as the number of people expected to be affected. The included models in Wildfire Analyst foresee including also the modelling of crown fire as well as taking into account fire spotting phenomena during the spread of the fire. Furthermore, the use of high-fidelity and high-resolution surface weather data that is going to be created for the addressed LLs, as well as information on atmospheric stability data, shall allow having a better insight about the EWE processes and improving the fire simulation models and associated results through the input of these data. In this regard, also, a set of forest fire potential indexes will be specified, developed and implemented in the corresponding Living Labs. These fire potential indexes, part of the Wildfire Analyst simulation services, shall allow the fire analyst to have an overview at the beginning of the fire incident about the potential of the fire regarding the size and the occurrence of convective processes. These indexes are provided/calculated in advance or when a simulation is triggered so that the end-user can have an insight, since the first moment, on how this fire is expected to behave and the potentiality of occurrence of EWE phenomena. These are operational results that are expected to be provided in a couple of minutes jointly with the Wildfire Analyst based simulation results. If Wildfire Analyst detects a strong event, complimentary coupled fire-atmosphere simulation will be done with more computing resources using FOREFIRE simulation services from CNRS. Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations are able to simulate coupled effects of fire behaviour and the atmosphere, wind due to the presence of fire (strong convection, like in PyroCb), smoke and the gusty winds. This is foreseen to be carried out by making use of HPC resources and high-resolution weather data that shall allow to simulate such complex phenomena. Furthermore, throughout the project multiple EWEs will be simulated and analysed to build a dataset with detailed atmospheric fields of extreme fire events. | |
Who can use it? | Firefighters, wildfire analysts, first responders. | |
What type of tool is it? | TBA | |
How does it look like? | TBA | |
This tool is… | ⊠ a new tool | ☐ an improved tool |
What are the vision & mission statement? | These tools shall provide an advance in the state of the art of operational forest fire simulation by better predicting the potential occurrence of extreme wildfire events as well as in better understanding their behaviour. | |
When will it be complete? | May 2025 | |
Documentation | https://iss.fire-res.com/ (available on the website after implementation in 2025) | |
This IA is implemented in the Living Lab(s)… | Catalonia, Canary Islands, Germany-The Netherlands, Portugal | |
