IA 1.3. Piloting early-warning indicators of EWEs incorporating fire-weather and vegetation conditions

OVERVIEW

Status

75%

What kind of result is this?	This is a new tool
What’s the area addressed?	Emergency, Risk Mapping and Sustainable Fire Management Models Extreme Wildfire Event process
What’s the covered phase?	Prevention & Preparedness
What’s the addressed challenge?	This IA aims to develop early-warning indicators of EWEs incorporating fire-weather and vegetation conditions, based on a probabilistic analysis of the occurrence of large and intense fires in Europe.
What value is proposed?	The main product is a novel fire forecasting system focusing on the EWE occurrence, operating daily at the Euro-Mediterranean scale. The model will incorporate easily accessible weather (forecasts for next days), fuel (monitored by remote sensing from previous days/weeks) and land cover variables as predictors. After a calibration and testing phase, the model could be easily implemented as a new module in existing wildfire information systems such as GWIS.
Who can use it?	Firefighters, Policy makers
What type of tool is it?	Daily Map and model
How does it look like?	A new module to be implemented in existing wildfire information systems such as GWIS.
This tool is…	⊠ a new tool	☐ an improved tool
What are the vision & mission statement?	Forecasting the probability of an extreme fire on a given day for the following days is of the utmost importance to alert and deploy the means of control and to prepare the populations for possible emergency management measures such as self-protection, traffic restrictions or evacuation of the residence areas.
When will it be complete?	March 2025
Documentation	TBA
This IA is implemented in the Living Lab(s)…	Nouvelle Aquitaine, Catalonia, Portugal, Greece, Sardinia

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